Risk Analysis in Petroleum Industry

Course Code: OG07

Course Objective

  • Understand various economic terms used in the Oil & Gas industry
  • Understand how to develop economic models of various petroleum fiscal regimes
  • Carry out cash flow analysis, different economic analyses for petroleum related project and determine economic indicators
  • Evaluate and quantify risks and uncertainties
  • Make the right investment decision in the presence of risk
  • Carry out a comprehensive economic evaluation study for any petroleum related project including risk analysis and sensitivity study using spreadsheet
  • Contribute to the petroleum project investment within a solid economic system and do a detailed economic evaluation
  • Contribute to the decision-making process for any petroleum related project

 

Target Audience

  • Oil & Gas Field Engineers
  • Oil & Gas Managers
  • Oil & Gas Auditors
  • Oil & Gas Planners
  • Financial Analysts

 

Course Outline

DAY 1: Cash Flow Analysis

  • Familiarization with Economic terms
  • Setting up Cash Flow Calculation
  • Depreciation Methods
  • Loss Carry Forwards
  • Inflation
  • Nominal & Real Cash Flow
  • Sunk Costs
  • Project Financing

DAY 2: Economic Indicators

  • Economic Indicators Definitions
  • Present Value Concept
  • Discount Factor
  • Net Present Value
  • Internal Rate of Return
  • Effect of Project Delay
  • Payback Period
  • Profit/Investment Ratio
  • Incremental Projects

DAY 3: Risks and Uncertainties

  • Risk & Uncertainty
  • Expected Value Concept
  • Decision Tree Analysis
  • Farm-out Decision
  • Probability Analysis
  • Sensitivity Analysis
  • Probability Distribution
  • Monte Carlo Simulation

 DAY 4: Setting up Spreadsheet Calculation

  • Introduction to Spreadsheet Calculation
  • Simple Cash Flow using Excel
  • NPV calculations
  • Application of economic indicators
  • Class discussion

DAY 5: Setting up Oil Field Development Model

  • Group activities
  • Setting up an Integrated Economic Model of a Typical Oil Field Development
  • Project Sensitivity Analysis for the selected model
  • Introduction to Russell field model
  • Final remarks


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Date & Location

Date : 24 March 2019

Duration : 5 days

Place : Jakarta

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